Trends in adult body-mass index in 200 countries from 1975 to 2014: a pooled analysis of 1698 population-based measurement studies with 19.2 million participants

Trends in adult body-mass index in 200 countries from 1975 to 2014: a pooled analysis of 1698 population-based measurement studies with 19.2 million participants

Author Di Cesare, Mariachiara Google Scholar
Bentham, James Google Scholar
Stevens, Gretchen A. Google Scholar
Zhou, Bin Google Scholar
Danaei, Goodarz Google Scholar
Lu, Yuan Google Scholar
Bixby, Honor Google Scholar
Cowan, Melanie J. Google Scholar
Riley, Leanne M. Google Scholar
Hajifathalian, Kaveh Google Scholar
Fortunato, Lea Google Scholar
Taddei, Cristina Google Scholar
Bennett, James E. Google Scholar
Ikeda, Nayu Google Scholar
Khang, Young-Ho Google Scholar
Kyobutungi, Catherine Google Scholar
Laxmaiah, Avula Google Scholar
Li, Yanping Google Scholar
Lin, Hsien-Ho Google Scholar
Miranda, J. Jaime Google Scholar
Mostafa, Aya Google Scholar
Turley, Maria L. Google Scholar
Paciorek, Christopher J. Google Scholar
Gunter, Marc Google Scholar
Ezzati, Majid Google Scholar
Abdeen, Ziad A. Google Scholar
Hamid, Zargar Abdul Google Scholar
Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen M. Google Scholar
Acosta-Cazares, Benjamin Google Scholar
Adams, Robert Google Scholar
Aekplakorn, Wichai Google Scholar
Aguilar-Salinas, Carlos A. Google Scholar
Ahmadvand, Alireza Google Scholar
Ahrens, Wolfgang Google Scholar
Ali, Mohamed M. Google Scholar
Alkerwi, Ala'a Google Scholar
Alvarez-Pedrerol, Mar Google Scholar
Aly, Eman Google Scholar
Amouyel, Philippe Google Scholar
Amuzu, Antoinette Google Scholar
Andersen, Lars Bo Google Scholar
Anderssen, Sigmund A. Google Scholar
Andrade, Dolores S. Google Scholar
Anjana, Ranjit Mohan Google Scholar
Aounallah-Skhiri, Hajer Google Scholar
Ariansen, Inger Google Scholar
Aris, Tahir Google Scholar
Arlappa, Nimmathota Google Scholar
Arveiler, Dominique Google Scholar
Assah, Felix K. Google Scholar
Avdicova, Maria Google Scholar
Azizi, Fereidoun Google Scholar
Babu, Bontha V. Google Scholar
Balakrishna, Nagalla Google Scholar
Bandosz, Piotr Google Scholar
Banegas, Jose R. Google Scholar
Barbagallo, Carlo M. Google Scholar
Barcelo, Alberto Google Scholar
Barkat, Amina Google Scholar
Barros, Mauro V. Google Scholar
Bata, Iqbal Google Scholar
Batieha, Anwar M. Google Scholar
Batista, Rosangela L. Google Scholar
Baur, Louise A. Google Scholar
Beaglehole, Robert Google Scholar
Ben Romdhane, Habiba Google Scholar
Benet, Mikhail Google Scholar
Bernabe-Ortiz, Antonio Google Scholar
Bernotiene, Gailute Google Scholar
Bettiol, Heloisa Google Scholar
Bhagyalaxmi, Aroor Google Scholar
Bharadwaj, Sumit Google Scholar
Bhargava, Santosh K. Google Scholar
Bhatti, Zaid Google Scholar
Bhutta, Zulfiqar A. Google Scholar
Bi, HongSheng Google Scholar
Bi, Yufang Google Scholar
Bjerregaard, Peter Google Scholar
Bjertness, Espen Google Scholar
Bjertness, Marius B. Google Scholar
Bjorkelund, Cecilia Google Scholar
Blake, Margaret Google Scholar
Blokstra, Anneke Google Scholar
Bo, Simona Google Scholar
Bobak, Martin Google Scholar
Boddy, Lynne M. Google Scholar
Boehm, Bernhard O. Google Scholar
Boeing, Heiner Google Scholar
Boissonnet, Carlos P. Google Scholar
Bongard, Vanina Google Scholar
Bovet, Pascal Google Scholar
Braeckman, Lutgart Google Scholar
Bragt, Marjolijn C. E. Google Scholar
Brajkovich, Imperia Google Scholar
Branca, Francesco Google Scholar
Breckenkamp, Juergen Google Scholar
Brenner, Hermann Google Scholar
Brewster, Lizzy M. Google Scholar
Brian, Garry R. Google Scholar
Bruno, Graziella Google Scholar
Mesquita, Bruno de Buen Google Scholar
Bugge, Anna Google Scholar
Burns, Con Google Scholar
Cabrera de Leon, Antonio Google Scholar
Cacciottolo, Joseph Google Scholar
Cama, Tilema Google Scholar
Cameron, Christine Google Scholar
Camolas, Jose Google Scholar
Can, Gunay Google Scholar
Candido, Ana Paula C. Google Scholar
Capuano, Vincenzo Google Scholar
Cardoso, Viviane C. Google Scholar
Carvalho, Maria J. Google Scholar
Casanueva, Felipe F. Google Scholar
Casas, Juan-Pablo Google Scholar
Caserta, Carmelo A. Google Scholar
Castetbon, Katia Google Scholar
Chamukuttan, Snehalatha Google Scholar
Chan, Angelique W. Google Scholar
Chan, Queenie Google Scholar
Chaturvedi, Himanshu K. Google Scholar
Chaturvedi, Nishi Google Scholar
Chen, Chien-Jen Google Scholar
Chen, Fangfang Google Scholar
Chen, Huashuai Google Scholar
Chen, Shuohua Google Scholar
Chen, Zhengming Google Scholar
Cheng, Ching-Yu Google Scholar
Chetrit, Angela Google Scholar
Chiolero, Arnaud Google Scholar
Chiou, Shu-Ti Google Scholar
Chirita-Emandi, Adela Google Scholar
Cho, Yumi Google Scholar
Christensen, Kaare Google Scholar
Chudek, Jerzy Google Scholar
Cifkova, Renata Google Scholar
Claessens, Frank Google Scholar
Clays, Els Google Scholar
Concin, Hans Google Scholar
Cooper, Cyrus Google Scholar
Cooper, Rachel Google Scholar
Coppinger, Tara C. Google Scholar
Costanzo, Simona Google Scholar
Cottel, Dominique Google Scholar
Cowell, Chris Google Scholar
Craig, Cora L. Google Scholar
Crujeiras, Ana B. Google Scholar
D'Arrigo, Graziella Google Scholar
d'Orsi, Eleonora Google Scholar
Dallongeville, Jean Google Scholar
Damasceno, Albertino Google Scholar
Damsgaard, Camilla T. Google Scholar
Danaei, Goodarz Google Scholar
Dankner, Rachel Google Scholar
Dauchet, Luc Google Scholar
De Backer, Guy Google Scholar
De Bacquer, Dirk Google Scholar
de Gaetano, Giovanni Google Scholar
De Henauw, Stefaan Google Scholar
De Smedt, Delphine Google Scholar
Deepa, Mohan Google Scholar
Deev, Alexander D. Google Scholar
Dehghan, Abbas Google Scholar
Delisle, Helene Google Scholar
Delpeuch, Francis Google Scholar
Dhana, Klodian Google Scholar
Di Castelnuovo, Augusto F. Google Scholar
Dias-da-Costa, Juvenal Soares Google Scholar
Diaz, Alejandro Google Scholar
Djalalinia, Shirin Google Scholar
Do, Ha T. P. Google Scholar
Dobson, Annette J. Google Scholar
Donfrancesco, Chiara Google Scholar
Doering, Angela Google Scholar
Doua, Kouamelan Google Scholar
Drygas, Wojciech Google Scholar
Egbagbe, Eruke E. Google Scholar
Eggertsen, Robert Google Scholar
Ekelund, Ulf Google Scholar
El Ati, Jalila Google Scholar
Elliott, Paul Google Scholar
Engle-Stone, Reina Google Scholar
Erasmus, Rajiv T. Google Scholar
Erem, Cihangir Google Scholar
Eriksen, Louise Google Scholar
Escobedo-de la Pena, Jorge Google Scholar
Evans, Alun Google Scholar
Faeh, David Google Scholar
Fall, Caroline H. Google Scholar
Farzadfar, Farshad Google Scholar
Felix-Redondo, Francisco J. Google Scholar
Ferguson, Trevor S. Google Scholar
Fernandez-Berges, Daniel Google Scholar
Ferrante, Daniel Google Scholar
Ferrari, Marika Google Scholar
Ferreccio, Catterina Google Scholar
Ferrieres, Jean Google Scholar
Finn, Joseph D. Google Scholar
Fischer, Krista Google Scholar
Monterubio Flores, Eric Google Scholar
Foeger, Bernhard Google Scholar
Foo, Leng Huat Google Scholar
Forslund, Ann-Sofie Google Scholar
Fortmann, Stephen P. Google Scholar
Fouad, Heba M. Google Scholar
Francis, Damian K. Google Scholar
Franco, Maria do Carmo Pinho Autor UNIFESP Google Scholar
Franco, Oscar H. Google Scholar
Frontera, Guillermo Google Scholar
Fuchs, Flavio D. Google Scholar
Fuchs, Sandra C. Google Scholar
Fujita, Yuki Google Scholar
Furusawa, Takuro Google Scholar
Gaciong, Zbigniew Google Scholar
Gafencu, Mihai Google Scholar
Gareta, Dickman Google Scholar
Garnett, Sarah P. Google Scholar
Gaspoz, Jean-Michel Google Scholar
Gasull, Magda Google Scholar
Gates, Louise Google Scholar
Geleijnse, Johanna M. Google Scholar
Ghasemian, Anoosheh Google Scholar
Giampaoli, Simona Google Scholar
Gianfagna, Francesco Google Scholar
Giovannelli, Jonathan Google Scholar
Giwercman, Aleksander Google Scholar
Goldsmith, Rebecca A. Google Scholar
Gonzalez Gross, Marcela Google Scholar
Gonzalez Rivas, Juan P. Google Scholar
Bonet Gorbea, Mariano Google Scholar
Gottrand, Frederic Google Scholar
Graff-Iversen, Sidsel Google Scholar
Grafnetter, Dusan Google Scholar
Grajda, Aneta Google Scholar
Grammatikopoulou, Maria G. Google Scholar
Gregor, Ronald D. Google Scholar
Grodzicki, Tomasz Google Scholar
Grontved, Anders Google Scholar
Gruden, Grabriella Google Scholar
Grujic, Vera Google Scholar
Gu, Dongfeng Google Scholar
Guan, Ong Peng Google Scholar
Gudnason, Vilmundur Google Scholar
Guerrero, Ramiro Google Scholar
Guessous, Idris Google Scholar
Guimaraes, Andre L. Google Scholar
Gulliford, Martin C. Google Scholar
Gunnlaugsdottir, Johanna Google Scholar
Gunter, Marc Google Scholar
Guo, Xiu H. Google Scholar
Guo, Yin Google Scholar
Gupta, Prakash C. Google Scholar
Gureje, Oye Google Scholar
Gurzkowska, Beata Google Scholar
Gutierrez, Laura Google Scholar
Gutzwiller, Felix Google Scholar
Halkjaer, Jytte Google Scholar
Hardy, Rebecca Google Scholar
Kumar, Rachakulla Hari Google Scholar
Hayes, Alison J. Google Scholar
He, Jiang Google Scholar
Hendriks, Marleen Elisabeth Google Scholar
Hernandez Cadena, Leticia Google Scholar
Heshmat, Ramin Google Scholar
Hihtaniemi, Ilpo Tapani Google Scholar
Ho, Sai Yin Google Scholar
Ho, Suzanne C. Google Scholar
Hobbs, Michael Google Scholar
Hofman, Albert Google Scholar
Hormiga, Claudia M. Google Scholar
Horta, Bernardo L. Google Scholar
Houti, Leila Google Scholar
Htay, Thein Thein Google Scholar
Htet, Aung Soe Google Scholar
Htike, Maung Maung Than Google Scholar
Hu, Yonghua Google Scholar
Hussieni, Abdullatif S. Google Scholar
Chinh Nguyen Huu Google Scholar
Huybrechts, Inge Google Scholar
Hwalla, Nahla Google Scholar
Iacoviello, Licia Google Scholar
Iannone, Anna G. Google Scholar
Ibrahim, M. Mohsen Google Scholar
Ikeda, Nayu Google Scholar
Ikram, M. Arfan Google Scholar
Irazola, Vilma E. Google Scholar
Islam, Muhammad Google Scholar
Iwasaki, Masanori Google Scholar
Jackson, Rod T. Google Scholar
Jacobs, Jeremy M. Google Scholar
Jafar, Tazeen Google Scholar
Jamil, Kazi M. Google Scholar
Jamrozik, Konrad Google Scholar
Jasienska, Grazyna Google Scholar
Jiang, Chao Qiang Google Scholar
Joffres, Michel Google Scholar
Johansson, Mattias Google Scholar
Jonas, Jost B. Google Scholar
Jorgensen, Torben Google Scholar
Joshi, Pradeep Google Scholar
Juolevi, Anne Google Scholar
Jurak, Gregor Google Scholar
Juresa, Vesna Google Scholar
Kaaks, Rudolf Google Scholar
Kafatos, Anthony Google Scholar
Kalter-Leibovici, Ofra Google Scholar
Kapantais, Efthymios Google Scholar
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Kavousi, Maryam Google Scholar
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Kengne, Andre P. Google Scholar
Kersting, Mathilde Google Scholar
Key, Timothy Google Scholar
Khader, Yousef Saleh Google Scholar
Khalili, Davood Google Scholar
Khang, Young-Ho Google Scholar
Khaw, Kay-Tee H. Google Scholar
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Kiechl, Stefan Google Scholar
Killewo, Japhet Google Scholar
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Kiyohara, Yutaka Google Scholar
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Koziel, Slawomir Google Scholar
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Krokstad, Steinar Google Scholar
Kromhout, Daan Google Scholar
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Fernanda Lima-Costa, M. Google Scholar
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Linneberg, Allan Google Scholar
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Lotufo, Paulo A. Google Scholar
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Zeng, Yi Google Scholar
Zhao, Dong Google Scholar
Zhao, Wenhua Google Scholar
Zheng, Yingfeng Google Scholar
Zhou, Maigeng Google Scholar
Zhu, Dan Google Scholar
Zimmermann, Esther Google Scholar
Zuniga Cisneros, Julio Google Scholar
Abstract Background Underweight and severe and morbid obesity are associated with highly elevated risks of adverse health outcomes. We estimated trends in mean body-mass index (BMI), which characterises its population distribution, and in the prevalences of a complete set of BMI categories for adults in all countries. Methods We analysed, with use of a consistent protocol, population-based studies that had measured height and weight in adults aged 18 years and older. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical model to these data to estimate trends from 1975 to 2014 in mean BMI and in the prevalences of BMI categories (<18·5 kg/m2 [underweight], 18·5 kg/m2 to <20 kg/m2, 20 kg/m2 to <25 kg/m2, 25 kg/m2 to <30 kg/m2, 30 kg/m2 to <35 kg/m2, 35 kg/m2 to <40 kg/m2, ≥40 kg/m2 [morbid obesity]), by sex in 200 countries and territories, organised in 21 regions. We calculated the posterior probability of meeting the target of halting by 2025 the rise in obesity at its 2010 levels, if post-2000 trends continue. Findings We used 1698 population-based data sources, with more than 19·2 million adult participants (9·9 million men and 9·3 million women) in 186 of 200 countries for which estimates were made. Global age-standardised mean BMI increased from 21·7 kg/m2 (95% credible interval 21·3–22·1) in 1975 to 24·2 kg/m2 (24·0–24·4) in 2014 in men, and from 22·1 kg/m2 (21·7–22·5) in 1975 to 24·4 kg/m2 (24·2–24·6) in 2014 in women. Regional mean BMIs in 2014 for men ranged from 21·4 kg/m2 in central Africa and south Asia to 29·2 kg/m2 (28·6–29·8) in Polynesia and Micronesia; for women the range was from 21·8 kg/m2 (21·4–22·3) in south Asia to 32·2 kg/m2 (31·5–32·8) in Polynesia and Micronesia. Over these four decades, age-standardised global prevalence of underweight decreased from 13·8% (10·5–17·4) to 8·8% (7·4–10·3) in men and from 14·6% (11·6–17·9) to 9·7% (8·3–11·1) in women. South Asia had the highest prevalence of underweight in 2014, 23·4% (17·8–29·2) in men and 24·0% (18·9–29·3) in women. Age-standardised prevalence of obesity increased from 3·2% (2·4–4·1) in 1975 to 10·8% (9·7–12·0) in 2014 in men, and from 6·4% (5·1–7·8) to 14·9% (13·6–16·1) in women. 2·3% (2·0–2·7) of the world's men and 5·0% (4·4–5·6) of women were severely obese (ie, have BMI ≥35 kg/m2). Globally, prevalence of morbid obesity was 0·64% (0·46–0·86) in men and 1·6% (1·3–1·9) in women. Interpretation If post-2000 trends continue, the probability of meeting the global obesity target is virtually zero. Rather, if these trends continue, by 2025, global obesity prevalence will reach 18% in men and surpass 21% in women; severe obesity will surpass 6% in men and 9% in women. Nonetheless, underweight remains prevalent in the world's poorest regions, especially in south Asia.
xmlui.dri2xhtml.METS-1.0.item-coverage New York
Language English
Sponsor Wellcome Trust
Grand Challenges Canada
Date 2016
Published in Lancet. New York, v. 387, n. 10026, p. 1377-1396, 2016.
ISSN 0140-6736 (Sherpa/Romeo, impact factor)
Publisher Elsevier Science Inc
Extent 1377-1396
Origin https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(16)30054-X
Access rights Open access Open Access
Type Article
Web of Science ID WOS:000373217500031
URI https://repositorio.unifesp.br/handle/11600/56063

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