Worldwide trends in diabetes since 1980: a pooled analysis of 751 population-based studies with 4.4 million participants

Worldwide trends in diabetes since 1980: a pooled analysis of 751 population-based studies with 4.4 million participants

Author Zhou, Bin Google Scholar
Lu, Yuan Google Scholar
Hajifathalian, Kaveh Google Scholar
Bentham, James Google Scholar
Di Cesare, Mariachiara Google Scholar
Danaei, Goodarz Google Scholar
Bixby, Honor Google Scholar
Cowan, Melanie J. Google Scholar
Ali, Mohammed K. Google Scholar
Taddei, Cristina Google Scholar
Lo, Wei-Cheng Google Scholar
Reis-Santos, Barbara Google Scholar
Stevens, Gretchen A. Google Scholar
Riley, Leanne M. Google Scholar
Miranda, J. Jaime Google Scholar
Bjerregaard, Peter Google Scholar
Rivera, Juan A. Google Scholar
Fouad, Heba M. Google Scholar
Ma, Guansheng Google Scholar
Mbanya, Jean Claude N. Google Scholar
McGarvey, Stephen T. Google Scholar
Mohan, Viswanathan Google Scholar
Onat, Altan Google Scholar
Ramachandran, Ambady Google Scholar
Ben Romdhane, Habiba Google Scholar
Paciorek, Christopher J. Google Scholar
Bennett, James E. Google Scholar
Ezzati, Majid Google Scholar
Abdeen, Ziad A. Google Scholar
Kadir, Khalid Abdul Google Scholar
Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen M. Google Scholar
Acosta-Cazares, Benjamin Google Scholar
Adams, Robert Google Scholar
Aekplakorn, Wichai Google Scholar
Aguilar-Salinas, Carlos A. Google Scholar
Agyemang, Charles Google Scholar
Ahmadvand, Alireza Google Scholar
Al-Othman, Amani Rashed Google Scholar
Alkerwi, Ala'a Google Scholar
Amouyel, Philippe Google Scholar
Amuzu, Antoinette Google Scholar
Andersen, Lars Bo Google Scholar
Anderssen, Sigmund A. Google Scholar
Anjana, Ranjit Mohan Google Scholar
Aounallah-Skhiri, Hajer Google Scholar
Aris, Tahir Google Scholar
Arlappa, Nimmathota Google Scholar
Arveiler, Dominique Google Scholar
Assah, Felix K. Google Scholar
Avdicova, Maria Google Scholar
Azizi, Fereidoun Google Scholar
Balakrishna, Nagalla Google Scholar
Bandosz, Piotr Google Scholar
Barbagallo, Carlo M. Google Scholar
Barcelo, Alberto Google Scholar
Batieha, Anwar M. Google Scholar
Baur, Louise A. Google Scholar
Ben Romdhane, Habiba Google Scholar
Benet, Mikhail Google Scholar
Bernabe-Ortiz, Antonio Google Scholar
Bharadwaj, Sumit Google Scholar
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Bjerregaard, Peter Google Scholar
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Blokstra, Anneke Google Scholar
Bo, Simona Google Scholar
Boehm, Bernhard O. Google Scholar
Boissonnet, Carlos P. Google Scholar
Bovet, Pascal Google Scholar
Brajkovich, Imperia Google Scholar
Breckenkamp, Juergen Google Scholar
Brenner, Hermann Google Scholar
Brewster, Lizzy M. Google Scholar
Brian, Garry R. Google Scholar
Bruno, Graziella Google Scholar
Bugge, Anna Google Scholar
Cabrera de Leon, Antonio Google Scholar
Can, Gunay Google Scholar
Candido, Ana Paula C. Google Scholar
Capuano, Vincenzo Google Scholar
Carlsson, Axel C. Google Scholar
Carvalho, Maria J. Google Scholar
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de Gaetano, Giovanni Google Scholar
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Abstract Background One of the global targets for non-communicable diseases is to halt, by 2025, the rise in the age-standardised adult prevalence of diabetes at its 2010 levels. We aimed to estimate worldwide trends in diabetes, how likely it is for countries to achieve the global target, and how changes in prevalence, together with population growth and ageing, are affecting the number of adults with diabetes. Methods We pooled data from population-based studies that had collected data on diabetes through measurement of its biomarkers. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends in diabetes prevalence-defined as fasting plasma glucose of 7.0 mmol/L or higher, or history of diagnosis with diabetes, or use of insulin or oral hypoglycaemic drugs-in 200 countries and territories in 21 regions, by sex and from 1980 to 2014. We also calculated the posterior probability of meeting the global diabetes target if post-2000 trends continue. Findings We used data from 751 studies including 4 372 000 adults from 146 of the 200 countries we make estimates for. Global age-standardised diabetes prevalence increased from 4.3% (95% credible interval 2.4-7.0) in 1980 to 9.0% (7.2-11.1) in 2014 in men, and from 5.0% (2.9-7.9) to 7.9% (6.4-9.7) in women. The number of adults with diabetes in the world increased from 108 million in 1980 to 422 million in 2014 (28.5% due to the rise in prevalence, 39.7% due to population growth and ageing, and 31.8% due to interaction of these two factors). Age-standardised adult diabetes prevalence in 2014 was lowest in northwestern Europe, and highest in Polynesia and Micronesia, at nearly 25%, followed by Melanesia and the Middle East and north Africa. Between 1980 and 2014 there was little change in age-standardised diabetes prevalence in adult women in continental western Europe, although crude prevalence rose because of ageing of the population. By contrast, age-standardised adult prevalence rose by 15 percentage points in men and women in Polynesia and Micronesia. In 2014, American Samoa had the highest national prevalence of diabetes (>30% in both sexes), with age-standardised adult prevalence also higher than 25% in some other islands in Polynesia and Micronesia. If post-2000 trends continue, the probability of meeting the global target of halting the rise in the prevalence of diabetes by 2025 at the 2010 level worldwide is lower than 1% for men and is 1% for women. Only nine countries for men and 29 countries for women, mostly in western Europe, have a 50% or higher probability of meeting the global target. Interpretation Since 1980, age-standardised diabetes prevalence in adults has increased, or at best remained unchanged, in every country. Together with population growth and ageing, this rise has led to a near quadrupling of the number of adults with diabetes worldwide. The burden of diabetes, both in terms of prevalence and number of adults affected, has increased faster in low-income and middle-income countries than in high-income countries. Funding Wellcome Trust. Copyright (C) NCD Risk Factor Collaboration. Open Access article distributed under the terms of CC BY.
xmlui.dri2xhtml.METS-1.0.item-coverage New York
Language English
Sponsor Wellcome Trust
Date 2016
Published in Lancet. New York, v. 387, n. 10027, p. 1513-1530, 2016.
ISSN 0140-6736 (Sherpa/Romeo, impact factor)
Publisher Elsevier Science Inc
Extent 1513-1530
Origin https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(16)00618-8
Access rights Open access Open Access
Type Article
Web of Science ID WOS:000373741600028
URI https://repositorio.unifesp.br/handle/11600/56055

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